Value betting is a strategy where bettors place wagers on outcomes that are more likely to occur than the odds set by the bookmaker imply. In essence, value betting is about finding bets where the odds offered by bookmakers are higher than the actual probability of the outcome occurring, giving the bettor a long-term edge over the bookmaker.
Unlike matched betting, where profits are often guaranteed, value betting doesn’t lock in guaranteed profits but relies on consistently finding bets with positive expected value (+EV). Over time, if you’re able to place +EV bets regularly, you can achieve significant profits.
Fair odds reflect the true probability of an event without bookmaker margin. For example, a 50/50 coin toss has fair odds of 2.0. A £10 bet at 2.0 returns £20 (profit = £10), and the expected value is £0 — meaning it’s a break-even bet over time.
Implied probability converts odds into a percentage. The formula is simple: 1 / Decimal Odds. So 2.0 odds implies a 50% chance.
EV helps you understand your average return over time. If a bet has a positive EV (+EV), it's profitable in the long run. For the coin toss example:
EV = (0.5 x £10 win) + (0.5 x £10 loss) = £0 (break-even).
Bookmakers adjust odds to guarantee a profit. Instead of offering 2.0, they might offer 1.9, meaning a £10 bet returns £19. The missing £1 is their margin.
Bookmakers use stats, team news, form, and models to set odds — but they also include a margin for profit.
Exchanges reflect the true market value of a bet. If a bookmaker offers higher odds than the exchange lay odds, there could be value. Tools like our Oddsmatcher make this process quicker by automatically comparing these odds for you.
If you know something the market hasn’t reacted to yet — like a key player injury — you may be able to place a value bet before the bookmaker adjusts.
Steam refers to sudden odds movement caused by sharp money. If you act quickly before slower bookies update their lines, you can catch value.
Bookmakers often offer price boosts on popular outcomes. If these odds imply a lower chance than you believe is accurate, the boost becomes a value bet.
Example: Normal odds = 5/1 (16.7% implied), boosted to 10/1 (9.1% implied). If you believe the outcome has a higher chance than 9.1%, this is +EV.
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Value betting is a strategy where bettors place wagers on outcomes that are more likely to occur than the odds set by the bookmaker imply. It focuses on finding bets where the odds are higher than the actual probability, offering a long-term edge over the bookmaker.
To spot a value bet, compare the odds offered by the bookmaker with the true probability of an event occurring. If the bookmaker’s odds imply a lower probability than your analysis suggests, it’s a value bet.
Value betting relies on consistently finding bets with positive expected value (+EV) over time, while matched betting involves exploiting free bet offers to lock in guaranteed profits, which doesn’t involve risk.
Yes! Price boosts can be a form of value betting if the boosted odds offer greater value than the bookmaker’s regular odds or the implied probability of the outcome is higher than what the bookmaker offers.